Why Our “Cost of Production” for Bitcoin Miners Is Higher — and Why That’s More Honest
Most mining calculators only show a snapshot (today’s difficulty, today’s fees, a constant network hashrate). Our model projects the network hashrate into the future (based on the trend since the 2021 China ban), and it factors in halvings, realistic uptime, hosting, and CapEx amortization. As a result, the effective unit cost per BTC rises over time — often well above what looks “profitable today.”
1) The Problem with Snapshots
Many profit calculators assume:
- current difficulty = constant
- current electricity prices = constant
- 100% uptime, 0% curtailment
- halvings / hashrate growth ignored or heavily underestimated
Result: overly optimistic profits. In 12–36 months, yield per TH/s is usually much lower.